T20 World Cup 2026: Pakistan’s semifinal qualification scenario after England vs New Zealand match

England’s narrow victory over New Zealand in Colombo has thrown Pakistan a lifeline in the T20 World Cup 2026. What looked like a near-certain exit just 24 hours ago has now turned into a realistically achievable path to the semi-finals for the Salman Ali Agha-led team.

At the R. Premadasa Stadium, New Zealand posted 159/7 after opting to bat first as their innings never quite took off despite handy contributions from their batters. England’s spinners, led by Adil Rashid and Rehan Ahmed, ran through the middle overs, ensuring the Black Caps finished with their lowest total of the tournament.

In reply, England lost Phil Salt and Jos Buttler, and at 117/6 in the 17th over, the chase looked far away from them. But Will Jacks and Rehan Ahmed added 44 runs off just 16 balls, dismantling Glenn Phillips in a 22-run over before finishing the job with three balls to spare. England won by four wickets, ending the Super 8 stage unbeaten and confirming their semi-final berth.

Notably, their win left New Zealand stranded on three points instead of five. Had the Black Caps won, Pakistan would have been knocked out. Instead, the loss has kept Pakistan alive in the competition.

Pakistan’s qualification scenario

Pakistan currently sits on one point after a washout against New Zealand and a defeat to England. With New Zealand on three points, Pakistan must beat Sri Lanka in their final Super 8 clash in Pallekele to move level on points. However, a simple win will not be enough as Net Run Rate (NRR) will decide who joins England in the semi-finals from Group 2.

Scenario 1:

If Pakistan bats first, they must defeat Sri Lanka by at least 64 runs.

Scenario 2:

If Sri Lanka bats first, Pakistan must chase down the target in 13.1 overs or fewer. Anything short of that, and New Zealand will progress to the semi-finals.

Updated Points Table (Super 8 Group 2)