T20 World Cup 2026: ‘I don’t think they will get into the top four’ – Ashwin doubtful over former champion’s semi-final chances

Former India cricketer Ravichandran Ashwin has cast serious doubt over Sri Lanka’s chances at the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026, with the veteran spin bowler warning that a semi-final spot could be out of reach despite the advantage of familiar conditions.

Sri Lanka will head into the global event with mixed momentum. Dasun Shanaka & Co. have managed just one win in their last five T20Is, a run that also includes a whitewash by England at home. In their last 15 T20Is, they have managed to win only five, losing a staggering nine games. While home advantage often plays a key role in major tournaments, Ashwin believes it may not be enough to paper over the cracks.

The legendary off-spinner, taking to his official YouTube channel, admitted that the Lankan Lions face long odds in the race for the semi-finals.

“It is difficult for them to get into the top four. I don’t think they will get into the top four. If they do, I will be really surprised. I won’t rule them out. If they get a must-win game against a Western side, they can prepare a turning wicket and take a chance,” Ashwin said on his Youtube channel.

Sri Lanka recently made a significant leadership call by reinstating Dasun Shanaka as captain in December 2025, replacing Charith Asalanka. Shanaka previously guided the island nation to a stunning Asia Cup triumph in 2022, but the team failed to carry that momentum into the World Cup later that year.

The 2014 winners have since announced their final squad for the tournament, retaining their core group of players, including the likes of Pathum Nissanka, Kusal Mendis, Wanindu Hasaranga, and Matheesha Pathirana. Despite the talent at their disposal, consistency remains a concern heading into a high-pressure event.

The co-hosts find themselves in Group B alongside heavyweight Australia, as well as Oman, Zimbabwe, and Ireland. They will begin their campaign against Paul Stirling’s Ireland on Sunday, February 8, a fixture that could set the tone for their tournament.

Ashwin also doubts Afghanistan’s top-four credentials

Ashwin also shared a cautious outlook on Afghanistan’s chances at the T20 World Cup, despite their rise in recent years and their strong performances in recent ICC events. Afghanistan were semi-finalists in the 2024 T20 World Cup and impressed during the 2023 ODI World Cup in the subcontinent, shedding their underdog tag along the way.

However, Ashwin feels Afghanistan’s batting could prove to be a major concern, especially on flatter wickets.

“People may say Afghanistan have a huge chance because they are playing in India, and playing against New Zealand at Chepauk. But Chepauk’s pitch is not like before. Their batting is a big problem. Can they make big scores? They might have a chance in day games, but I still think they are not going to qualify. They are a good, emerging side, but not a top-four side,” the veteran said.

Afghanistan have been placed in what many consider a group of death, featuring South Africa and New Zealand, along with Canada and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). While their spin attack remains a major strength, Ashwin believes a lack of batting firepower could prevent them from making a deep run in the tournament.